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I just randomly ran across this:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/40717043
and didn't realize how poorly the devices are selling at launch.
I'm not trying to knock WP7 and although I prefer Android I still like WP7 a lot and do think it has the potential to contend if it can just get off its feet and convince people to get on board.
Something else I thought of was when there is a CDMA iPhone in Q1 2011, this will hamper sales of WP7 since VZW has so many customers and it seems like most will go for an LTE iPhone over a WP7 device, if only due to name-recognition.
Personally, I hope it succeeds because as I've said before, it will force Apple and Google to stay on top of their game as far as quality is concerned and it's something new and fresh and I'm always about that.
Just needs to freaking sell more.
nope its not a flop
It's not really a flop, it's just that there's so much on the market right now. When Iphone, and Android both first came out, there really wasn't all that much available that people would flock to. Even more when right now WP7 only has about 2-3 major carriers available. I think when more updates for WP7 come in, and when the other major networks receive WP7, that's when we'll see a jump in it. I get questions on WP7 all the time at work, or people telling me that they didn't like WM6.5 too much, so they aren't going to bother with WP7.
Verizon and Sprint will open up a HUGE market - especially for the "Really" crowd who don't like the prices of AT&T.. Sprint could potentially be the largest customer magnet for WP7 with their great network pricing - especially if MS incentivizes their network/phone/plans/hardware.
Apple iPhone (2007): 1,000,000 in 74 days, one phone in one country
Google G1 (2008): 600.000 in two months, one phone in two countries
Palm Pre (2009): 300,000 in one month, one phone in one country
WP7 (2010): 300,000 (?) in one month, 9 phones worldwide
Yes, it's a flop.
Opposite reason.
vbetts said:
It's not really a flop, it's just that there's so much on the market right now. When Iphone, and Android both first came out, there really wasn't all that much available that people would flock to. Even more when right now WP7 only has about 2-3 major carriers available. I think when more updates for WP7 come in, and when the other major networks receive WP7, that's when we'll see a jump in it. I get questions on WP7 all the time at work, or people telling me that they didn't like WM6.5 too much, so they aren't going to bother with WP7.
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WM 6.5.5 Energy ROM was great to me on my FUZE, I have had no problems with it (Lags, freezes etc.). The things I like about 6.5.5 I find missing in WP7. For that reason, I won't switch to WP7 until I actually see the results of the next couple of releases.
tomhierl said:
Apple iPhone (2007): 1,000,000 in 74 days, one phone in one country
Google G1 (2008): 600.000 in two months, one phone in two countries
Palm Pre (2009): 300,000 in one month, one phone in one country
WP7 (2010): 300,000 (?) in one month, 9 phones worldwide
Yes, it's a flop.
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hahaha.. the amount of devices is irrelevent when the marketshare doesn't grow per device available. (hd tv sales didn't multiply by 10 just because there were 10 different tvs on the market)
and where did you pull this 300k number from?
I'd imagine that M$ are less than happy with the sales thus far.
I know loads of people that want a WP but are not willing until M$ "finish making it".
I have been out of contract since June but I am holding out for the HTC pro 7 and copy'n'paste and most importantly- tethering.
It strikes me that part of the problem with dumbing down the OS in the name of mass appeal is the masses are only interested in the amount of apps in the app store.
If the above is correct then I guess ownership will increase in line with the increase in apps.
the amount of devices is irrelevent when the marketshare doesn't grow per device available.
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The amount of countries is and the year, too.
and where did you pull this 300k number from?
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150,000 Facebook users after one month, times 2 (assuming 50% of people log in to Facebook with their Windows Phone 7 phone).
tomhierl said:
The amount of countries is and the year, too.
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is what? most countries and carriers only offered 2 phones available in stock and a 3rd perpetually on back order. In most cases only having one device available for resale in volume.
150,000 Facebook users after one month, times 2 (assuming 50% of people log in to Facebook with their Windows Phone 7 phone).
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50% attach rate to facebook would be amazing and a huge success for everyone involved.
imaginarynumber said:
It strikes me that part of the problem with dumbing down the OS in the name of mass appeal is the masses are only interested in the amount of apps in the app store.
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what exacty is dumbed down? sure, its not 100% polished, but dumbed down?
most countries and carriers only offered 2 phones available in stock and a 3rd perpetually on back order.
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That's not true. They were widely available across Europe only a few days after launch. The rumors about limited stock were bogus. Some stores only had two or three devices, but they didn't get sold. That's a flop by any measure.
50% attach rate to facebook would be amazing and a huge success for everyone involved.
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There are 57 million iPhone users on Facebook, that's more than 50% of them.
what exacty is dumbed down? sure, its not 100% polished, but dumbed down?
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Oh come on. This hardly deserves to be called a smartphone OS and you know that.
tomhierl said:
That's not true. They were widely available across Europe only a few days after launch. The rumors about limited stock were bogus.
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And you have proof of this how?
in the US alone i couldn't get ahold of an LG or focus during launch week.
There are 57 million iPhone users on Facebook, that's more than 50% of them.
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Not if you include ipad/itouch devices..
Oh come on. This hardly deserves to be called a smartphone OS and you know that.
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Now you're just being ignorant and silly.
Oh yes that's what I am... not.
Not if you include ipad/itouch devices..
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So what? If only 20% of users log in to Facebook, that still makes less than a million WP7 phones sold in one and a half months, which is still a flop by any measure.
tomhierl said:
Oh yes that's what I am... not.
So what? If only 20% of users log in to Facebook, that still makes less than a million WP7 phones sold in one and a half months, which is still a flop by any measure.
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a flap only in your eyes
A success considering the crappy economy, a single carrier, a pricey phone with 2 year contract and a holiday season full of stiff competition.
My so called dumb wp7 smartphone does 720p video, takes 5mp pics, uploads to the cloud to save images, integrates with facebook, has a single hub for all my contacts, does netflix fantastically, has twitter/facebook/shazam/seesmic/IMDB/fandango apps, plays games, integrates with my xbox live gamertag is fast, snappy and best of all works as a phone all day long. No dropped calls, no terrible battery life, great voice/speaker quality. Its hardly a flop.
If anything WP7 reflects realistic market conditions rather than fanatic brand obsessed markets.. a year from now we'll all be laughing abnout this anyway still trying to call MS a failure just because thats all you know
Measured against overall smartphone sales, WP7 is the slowest selling OS of the last four years. Sorry, but that's what I call a flop.
The economy has been far worse when Android launched, the G1, iPhone and Pre all were only on one carrier in one or two countries, whereas WP7 is available in many countries on much better hardware and still nobody's buying it.
Your phone doesn't even let you load your files onto it. How lame is that? No wonder nobody's buying this, after all, people want their files. WP7 is a flop both technologically and in terms of sales.
tomhierl said:
Measured against overall smartphone sales, WP7 is the slowest selling OS of the last four years. Sorry, but that's what I call a flop.
Your phone doesn't even let you load your files onto it. How lame is that? No wonder nobody's buying this, after all, people want their files.
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Hahaha loading pics? seriously? Let me tell you something. I went to ATT, bought my focus, plugged in my windows live id and integrated my flickr and facebook ID with WL id and voila, 10+ years of digital photography was on my phone without me having to "load it".. Its called the Images hub and it works great and it continually integrates with services that can extend that hub. Pretty "smart" eh
BTW, until numbers are produced, you're guess is just a guess tarnished with spite and nothing else. I'm quite intrigued where this obsessive ms hate comes from!
I think the point about there being more smartphone OS's to choose from is valid. When iPhone launched it was the only one of its kind. A simple UI for non-business users that was cool, had a big ass screen, and built in iPod, I remember how "cool" everyone who had one felt.
Android came out and the only real competitor was iPhone. But you couldn't get an iPhone on the other 3 networks so tmobile opted to get a G1 on contract instead of buying a used iPhone and unlocking it.
Now let's look at what WP7 has to contend with:
1) iPhone which people love, has a simple UI, and orders of magnitude more apps available than WP7, not to mention the "cool" factor. Everyone knows there's going to be a CDMA iPhone so that is going to really take away from WP7 sales IMO because now people can get their iPhone on a decent network.
2) Android phones on EVERY network, very popular right now and getting more popular by the day. Has had almost 3 years to polish up the OS and has more UI options like Live Wallpapers, Launchers, etc... and tons more apps than WP7.
3) MS already has a bad name in the mobile world for having phones that "lag, are hard to figure out, for business users only" etc... so they are fighting that as well.
4) Advertising - IMO the ads are horrible. They showcase that supposedly iPhone and Android users have to spend more time on their phones because they don't have those big ass tiles? Come on, show us more features of the phone.
5) No front facing camera on any phone is a killer IMO, look at the iPhone 4, the Evo, Epic, MT4G, Nexus S. It's the new trend and people are liking it a lot. I am willing to bet we are going to be FLOODED with VZW Facetime over LTE ads which will crush these amazingly stupid dude jumping out of an airplane and can supposedly open his camera app like one second faster than an iPhone or Android could type ads.
For these reasons it is going to be hard for MS, they are going to lose more $ than they make and will have to keep their head above water till there are much more apps and some of these missing features.
blahism said:
a flap only in your eyes
A success considering the crappy economy, a single carrier, a pricey phone with 2 year contract and a holiday season full of stiff competition.
My so called dumb wp7 smartphone does 720p video, takes 5mp pics, uploads to the cloud to save images, integrates with facebook, has a single hub for all my contacts, does netflix fantastically, has twitter/facebook/shazam/seesmic/IMDB/fandango apps, plays games, integrates with my xbox live gamertag is fast, snappy and best of all works as a phone all day long. No dropped calls, no terrible battery life, great voice/speaker quality. Its hardly a flop.
If anything WP7 reflects realistic market conditions rather than fanatic brand obsessed markets.. a year from now we'll all be laughing abnout this anyway still trying to call MS a failure just because thats all you know
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not so sure.
http://www.pcworld.com/article/2140...0_to_1_against_android_iphone_study_says.html
Hahaha loading pics?
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I said files, not pics. Don't be silly.
BTW, until numbers are produced, you're guess is just a guess tarnished with spite and nothing else.
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More numbers: http://www.pcworld.com/article/2140...0_to_1_against_android_iphone_study_says.html
You can do the math. Find out how many Android and iPhone users there are and take that times 0.0045.
I'm quite intrigued where this obsessive ms hate comes from!
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Oh, come on! MS hate? Really? WP7 a ****ty OS, plain and simple. That doesn't say anything about the rest of Microsoft's products - Windows 7 for example is great.
found this interesting because of the on going flop thread...
http://wmpoweruser.com/official-1-5...ped-faster-than-original-iphone-a-good-start/
well he's saying that the manufacturers sold 1.5 million to the carriers, not actual people, so if people don't buy the phone it will just sit on the shelves.
They need people to go to the stores and buy these phones!
but this is great news for WP7, and I do think they have a good product, let's hope they force google to ramp up their product as well.
^ doubt it. Google and Apple aren't taking notice of WP7. The only people that care about wp7 is wp7 sites, and this small part of xda. Search around you wont see any Android vs WP7, or IOS vs WP7 threads anywhere. If you do, its very brief.
vetvito said:
^ doubt it. Google and Apple aren't taking notice of WP7. The only people that care about wp7 is wp7 sites, and this small part of xda. Search around you wont see any Android vs WP7, or IOS vs WP7 threads anywhere. If you do, its very brief.
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but I think that that will change real fast
vetvito said:
^ doubt it. Google and Apple aren't taking notice of WP7. The only people that care about wp7 is wp7 sites, and this small part of xda. Search around you wont see any Android vs WP7, or IOS vs WP7 threads anywhere. If you do, its very brief.
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How can you say that Google and Apple aren't taking notice?
Do you work for them or have insider knowledge or something?
Any sale of a competing device is something they don't want be it 1 or 100 units so it would be foolish of them to not take notice.
1.5 millions WP7 units bought by retailers means 1.5 million not Apple or Google phones not bought. Why would they not take notice?
And once again, here you are being negative in a WP7 thread. Why do you hang around here if you have so little faith in the OS?
I think Google and Apple are taking notice, MS is nothing to ignore, look what they did to apple in the computer OS world, now they're doing it again.
Take Apple's business model and UI and kang it to run more efficiently and universally, that's what they did with their computer OS and it looks like that's what they're doing with WP7.
Not to mention most stores have very low stock so most of the 1.5 million phones are most likely in the hands of consumers..
lekki said:
How can you say that Google and Apple aren't taking notice?
Do you work for them or have insider knowledge or something?
Any sale of a competing device is something they don't want be it 1 or 100 units so it would be foolish of them to not take notice.
1.5 millions WP7 units bought by retailers means 1.5 million not Apple or Google phones not bought. Why would they not take notice?
And once again, here you are being negative in a WP7 thread. Why do you hang around here if you have so little faith in the OS?
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Wasn't being negative, just posted something that you didn't like.
Apple and Google are more than likely looking at WP7 the same as WebOS.
The thing is you guys act as if the competition will just stay the same. You act as if they wont update.
Just a little piece of what's coming next year:
IPhone 5
IOS5
Nexus 2(not s)
Ipad 2
EVO 2
HTC Knight(maybe the same as EVO 2)
honeycomb
Maybe even cdma iPhone
Galaxy S2
That's just a small part of the competition. I'm not trying to step on anyone's toes.
vetvito said:
Wasn't being negative, just posted something that you didn't like.
Apple and Google are more than likely looking at WP7 the same as WebOS.
The thing is you guys act as if the competition will just stay the same. You act as if they wont update.
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There's a slight difference between WebOS and MS - cash, and lots of it. Apple and Google knew that WebOS was a long shot, and that it had to succeed very, very quickly, because they knew Palm couldn't withstand losses for very long before they were in real trouble.
Safe to say MS doesn't have that problem. They can afford to take the long view, and they will. There's no possible way that MS won't have a significant presence in the mobile space.
And to be honest, Apple hasn't really updated - not in any sort of appreciable way, and they've paid the price. Steve's stubbornness is detrimental to their OS, and he'd better relent on some of his "True-isms", or they'll continue to pay a price.
froesei said:
There's a slight difference between WebOS and MS - cash, and lots of it. Apple and Google knew that WebOS was a long shot, and that it had to succeed very, very quickly, because they knew Palm couldn't withstand losses for very long before they were in real trouble.
Safe to say MS doesn't have that problem. They can afford to take the long view, and they will. There's no possible way that MS won't have a significant presence in the mobile space.
And to be honest, Apple hasn't really updated - not in any sort of appreciable way, and they've paid the price. Steve's stubbornness is detrimental to their OS, and he'd better relent on some of his "True-isms", or they'll continue to pay a price.
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You make some good points, but I'm thinking Microsoft is following the exact same road.
I highly doubt they will have a significant presence in the mobile market. I'm pretty sure they will share the same market as WebOS and Rim.
vetvito said:
You make some good points, but I'm thinking Microsoft is following the exact same road.
I highly doubt they will have a significant presence in the mobile market. I'm pretty sure they will share the same market as WebOS and Rim.
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It's possible, but I think it's too early to tell. I think what they're really aiming for is the 80% of the total cell phone market that still uses a feature phone. With those kinds of numbers, they don't need a piece of Google or Apple's pie (pardon the pun).
For what it's worth, a good friend, and longtime iPhone user switched to WP7 after he saw mine. And every other iPhone user I've showed it to has displayed elements of envy. Whether or not it's enough to cause them to switch, is another thing, and as of yet not known.
Regardless, it will be interesting to watch, especially if MS keeps updating and innovating the platform.
WP7 is already tons better than WebOS ever was. It has actual developers and an actual app store, supported on phones with big screens and fast processors etc.. not even comparable.
froesei said:
It's possible, but I think it's too early to tell. I think what they're really aiming for is the 80% of the total cell phone market that still uses a feature phone. With those kinds of numbers, they don't need a piece of Google or Apple's pie (pardon the pun).
For what it's worth, a good friend, and longtime iPhone user switched to WP7 after he saw mine. And every other iPhone user I've showed it to has displayed elements of envy. Whether or not it's enough to cause them to switch, is another thing, and as of yet not known.
Regardless, it will be interesting to watch, especially if MS keeps updating and innovating the platform.
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That's another good point. I didn't even look at it from that point of view.
However IOS has become too blah, and IOS 5 or maybe 6 will address this. You can't beat Apple by following the same road.
What's innovative in WP7? When they allow the unreal engine, things will be more interesting.
orangekid said:
WP7 is already tons better than WebOS ever was. It has actual developers and an actual app store, supported on phones with big screens and fast processors etc.. not even comparable.
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That's highly opinionated. However your other points are correct. The Pre2 was a nail in the coffin.
vetvito said:
You make some good points, but I'm thinking Microsoft is following the exact same road.
I highly doubt they will have a significant presence in the mobile market. I'm pretty sure they will share the same market as WebOS and Rim.
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doesn't rim own like 24% of the smartphone market?
No.
http://www.google.com/m/url?ei=vDQR...IQFjAA&usg=AFQjCNHQAMucpmohpAbaW31UQAreEuVYIw
vetvito said:
No.
http://www.google.com/m/url?ei=vDQR...IQFjAA&usg=AFQjCNHQAMucpmohpAbaW31UQAreEuVYIw
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That's just one quarter's worth of numbers. RIM still has the most smartphones in use in the US right now.
RIght now? Prove it.
I see what you mean, they were at 40%.
What you're missing is that the vast majority of the 1.5 million units _sold_ by manufacturers are actually also sold to end-users - as we all know a lot of stockists worldwide are on backorder at the moment.
I personally know several developers (myself being one) that did not get their hands on an actual device until after the six week mark due to low stock locally - this from people across three continents.
Worth mentioning is also that two weeks out of those six there was hardly any stock at all anywhere as manufacturers only part-delivered what was initially ordered from the carriers in Europe and Australia. It was only just before the US launch that they were able to even start meeting demand.
Looking at the raw figures though, compared to the iOS and Android launches, I would say these sales are on par. Of course that's not an entirely fair comparison as more people, overall, are buying smartphones today than they did back then but still.
vetvito said:
RIght now? Prove it.
I see what you mean, they were at 40%.
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I was about to get on you... Its a pretty well known fact that RIM holds the majority stake in the smartphone market. Been that way for awhile now. Don't know how much longer that will be but if WP7 got to that level I think itd be considered a great success.
Much has been made of the Windows Phone slow start with maybe less that 2 million units in the hands of consumers. However I think that the recent predictions by Gartner, IDC etc... of about 20% by 2015 might be a little low. I think by 2015 Android and Windows Phone will have parity in software features, hardware and the number of OEM`s supporting them.
I also think the Nokia relationship definately pushes them to over 30% when you consider Nokia`s dominance in growing economies like China, India, Russia, Latin America and Africa. Its also clear how much Nokia needs windows phone to defend these markets against Android..
India and China alone are expected to see their middle class grow 10 fold by 2025. India currently has a middle class population of about 50 million people..
Its definately not just about whats happening in the North America or Western Europe!!!
This graphic tells the current state of play worldwide...
http://rww.readwriteweb.netdna-cdn....02/global-os-marketshare-feb.2011-o-27904.php
We'll see how well WP7 and Nokia really work together. From what we know, Bing Maps will get stuff from Ovi Maps (or be replaced by Ovi Maps?) and a Nokia App store will be added on top of the Windows Phone Marketplace. This might be nice for Nokia but I don't know if other phone makers will like this.
Also Nokia will not use WP7 in its current form. What that means is not very clear, but the start screen with all the pinned apps and stuff might not be there on nokia phones.
^ last I read, Nokia wont be doing any changes to the OS.
Yeah that's what I read some time ago which actually didn't bother me:
http://www.engadget.com/2011/02/11/nokia-will-be-able-to-customize-everything-in-windows-phone-7/
But then a few days ago this:
http://www.liveside.net/2011/04/29/will-nokia-phones-use-metro/
slimshady322 said:
But then a few days ago this:
http://www.liveside.net/2011/04/29/will-nokia-phones-use-metro/
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That article is very misleading. The part they claim to be a translated quote of Öistämö's comments was not that at all. It was a quote of a blog's interpretation of the comment that "Nokia will not adopt Windows Phone environment as it is today". Considering how vague that comment is, it could be taken many ways.
Besides, if Microsoft were to allow Nokia to make such fundamental UI changes, after forbidding HTC from doing the same, it could destroy their relationship with their other manufacturers.
Nokia will be adding things like better camera app, Navtek Data/ovi maps into the whole wp7 system, the OVI store, and differentiating itself with its hardware. The general OS will be untouched as to provide the consistent user experience across devices MS is looking for.
I personally cannot wait for the high end Nokia Windows Phones. And I believe they will also force the other OEM's to make better hardware as well to compete.
If nokia wont change anything on wp7 they will fail. Symbian maybe outdated and old but it has lots of nice features. Nokia fanboys may find wp7 lacking on every aspect. And what about the low-end phones from nokia? Will it too have wp7 on it. Nokia definitely made a wrong choice here. Nokia dominates on the Massess.
Nokia will be using WP7 for the low end after 2012 and WP8 for the high end devices... I think they will introduce new form factors also...
Sent from my OMNIA7 using XDA Windows Phone 7 App
ebzrascal said:
Nokia will be using WP7 for the low end after 2012 and WP8 for the high end devices... I think they will introduce new form factors also...
Sent from my OMNIA7 using XDA Windows Phone 7 App
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ewww, this will not sit well with people....
remember how pissed people were when they found they needed to buy vista ultimate office wildcard edition for xyz featureset ?
ok, now compound that pissed off consumer with a 2 year contract, and having to upgrade a piece of hardware ($600 off contract, no upgrade eligiblilty) to get xyz featureset...
I predict some pissed folks !
this is where apple got it right, and ms should have learned already:
same phone, just more storage
android?
a billion phones + 1 click root = any software you ever wanted
There's no way to predict anything for 2015 with any reliability. The best you can do is take current factors and extrapolate. Currently phones have very short lives (1-2 years in the hands of a customer), and without loyalty market shares change dramatically very fast. There's nothing that prevents users from switching - "apps" are too cheap to be a real barrier, and on Android they don't even serve this purpose because so many are free.
So there's brands and distribution power. Arguably, the only real smartphone brand is owned by Apple. Everything else is up in the air.
That being said, WP7 needs dozens of phones, and not just from Nokia, to have a sizable market.
Its also interesting to see what Apple is going to do with that billion dollar datacentre.
The only companies in this market with Brand Loyalty is RIM, APPLE and Nokia....
Thats why Nokia is huge for WP7 especially in the emerging markets where their lead is considerable and economic growth is much higher than the North America and Western Europe.....
If Nokia raises the profile of Windows Phone then HTC, Samsung and LG will all benifit. It will be interesting to see if Sony Ericssron and Motorola make devices in future if all goes as predicted...
ebzrascal said:
The only companies in this market with Brand Loyalty is RIM, APPLE and Nokia....
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Symbian has brand loyalty, not Nokia. If SE would start putting out Symbian phones with their hardware designs, good screens, and their good cameras, I bet a lot of people who are Symbian loyalists would go there, but Sony dumped Symbian too
Thats why Nokia is huge for WP7 especially in the emerging markets where their lead is considerable and economic growth is much higher than the North America and Western Europe.....
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That's assuming most of those people will accept the functionality disparity and go with WP7 as opposed to moving to devices from RIM or Android devices. Those forcases are all very ambitious. I don't think they will play out as well as peopel think it would. Most of them assumed like 90 to 100% of Nokia's current customers will go from Symbian to WP7, which I simply don't see happening...
If Nokia raises the profile of Windows Phone then HTC, Samsung and LG will all benifit. It will be interesting to see if Sony Ericssron and Motorola make devices in future if all goes as predicted...
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If Nokia's pricing for WP7 handsets in this part of the world is the same as their high end Symbian phone prices, they will still lose badly here to HTC/Samsung/LG/Sony/etc. because price matters.
Microsoft is giving Nokia a competitive edge over the other manufacturers at the moment.
But a manufacturer like Samsung has the capacity to make better phones than Nokia. Microsoft really limited Samsung WRT the Focus (no Hummingbird (wildly superior to 1st gen snapdragons - ESP the GPU), and it seems like the sound hardware isn't as good as the Galaxy S phones, either). Using old hardware helps manufacturers like Nokia and HTC who are trying to maximize margins, but it hurts manufacturers like Samsung who have their own, better, hardware they could use...
If they don't let up soon the other manufacturers may just drop it and concentrate on Android (except HTC, they'll just use an old blueprint and put a new OS on it and call it a day).
N8ter said:
Symbian has brand loyalty, not Nokia. If SE would start putting out Symbian phones with their hardware designs, good screens, and their good cameras, I bet a lot of people who are Symbian loyalists would go there, but Sony dumped Symbian too
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I disagree Nokia has the Brand loyalty not Symbian at least with the average customer... Nokia stands for Reliabilty and Quality in hardware and optics.
N8ter said:
That's assuming most of those people will accept the functionality disparity and go with WP7 as opposed to moving to devices from RIM or Android devices. Those forcases are all very ambitious. I don't think they will play out as well as peopel think it would. Most of them assumed like 90 to 100% of Nokia's current customers will go from Symbian to WP7, which I simply don't see happening...
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When Nokia devices arrive with Mango built in there will be no functionality disparity!!! between WP7 and RIM/ANDROID/IOS
N8ter said:
If Nokia's pricing for WP7 handsets in this part of the world is the same as their high end Symbian phone prices, they will still lose badly here to HTC/Samsung/LG/Sony/etc. because price matters.
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Just checked Expansys and the N8 is selling for 400ukp and the E72 250ukp which is definately comparible to Android and Blackberry...
N8ter said:
Microsoft is giving Nokia a competitive edge over the other manufacturers at the moment.
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Well they are giving WP7 a huge push in distribution to India, China, Russia, Latin America and African markets. China already has a smartphone market which half the size of the US market and its exected to grow rapidly. They are also bring functionality to Windows Phone like OVI Maps and Navigation.
N8ter said:
But a manufacturer like Samsung has the capacity to make better phones than Nokia. Microsoft really limited Samsung WRT the Focus (no Hummingbird (wildly superior to 1st gen snapdragons - ESP the GPU), and it seems like the sound hardware isn't as good as the Galaxy S phones, either). Using old hardware helps manufacturers like Nokia and HTC who are trying to maximize margins, but it hurts manufacturers like Samsung who have their own, better, hardware they could use...
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I would expect support for Hummingbird, Tegra 3 etc to come later when Windows Phone is established and are selling hundreds of millions of devices
N8ter said:
If they don't let up soon the other manufacturers may just drop it and concentrate on Android (except HTC, they'll just use an old blueprint and put a new OS on it and call it a day).
Click to expand...
Click to collapse
Why would the OEM`s want to depend soley on Android ?? Eventually I see Motorola and especially Sony Ericsson making Windows Phones probably in late 2012...
pcmag is sensatinalising things, stating android was sued into stopping wifi tethering...then going to be sued out of existwance by apple... now this
source
http://mobile.pcmag.com/device2/art.../www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2384840,00.asp
Analyst Says Real Microsoft WP7 Sales Are 'Catastrophic'
By Sara Yin Tweet
Russian tech blogger and analyst Eldar Murtazin, the man credited for predicting the Nokia-Microsoft tie-up way back in December, has published a damning report that claims Microsoft sold only 674,000 Windows Phone 7 devices in its first six weeks.
there is more, hit the link
I don't know their sources.. But, if this is true, our devices are doomed.
mikeeam said:
I don't know their sources.. But, if this is true, our devices are doomed.
Click to expand...
Click to collapse
No, they are not. Microsoft is in this for the long haul and have been since WinMo. You think WinMo's sales were good? Look how long the Zune lasted.
Your phone will last longer than most geeks own a handset, and at least longer than the contract people would have signed.
The only doom and gloom the nay-sayers are speculating on is if Mango will be supported by current handsets. I guess you have to panic people somehow.
imho check the pockenow.com comments
actually they tell a FAR better story about thie "sales" number
and let's not forget eldar has been wrong, and a lot. Remember the nexus one being an apple brainchild, yeah he said that...
I mean as far as reporting devices in hand he is good. But some rumors or anything, he sucks
I think we all need to calm down, enjoy our devices, and care less about unofficial announcements and rumours.
i saw few video demos by MS is working really hard to make WP7 THE os to be on mobiles....
and with Nokia on board it looks like MS will be a player as right now HTC is the biggest OEM and their 75% devices are Android.... with nokia in the game i an hoping to see much better HTC devices (as the current HD7 is not good enough)..
i will not bother what ppl say as the mango will speak for it self...
MS also have came up with tools to migrate/redevelop iOS games for WP7 with less effort, come on guys if you are using a smartphone you should be smarter then this..
imho
I am pretty sure the numbers are close to 3-4 million
Whatever it is - 2 or 3 millions, half a year after premiere is catastrophic. If you guys use WM argument, it's a bad one. I mean they are IN it for years and still not beeing able to catchup?
And actually WM finally doesn't exist anymore.
These numbers mean WP7 is selling a bit more devices A MONTH than Android A DAY. Lol.
My intuition says WP7 is not appealing for users en masse.
But market is not something you can just easily predict. Nokia deal will be probably a main changing factor.
Currently with unstoppable Android devices show and lack of any response from WP7 world things will not be better but worse. I'm afraid WP7 will became a "geek" platform.
Android has sooo many sexy new phones coming out. I'm not leaving WP7 but I am jealous of the hardware they use. A few high profile phones would help WP7 a lot.
The general public seems to think all smart phones are iPhone. There needs to be a mass marketing campaign to deprogram them.
Not a single person who has used my phone dislikes it. I'm sure if more people knew about it more people would buy it.
I am hoping that the Nokia deal puts Wp7 in the hands of millions more people. IMO it's the best mobile OS out there.
Using 2010 data he claims he received from operators and retailers, Murtazin said Microsoft only sold 674,000 WP7 units in November and December, when you take out the number of phones given to all its employees.
Click to expand...
Click to collapse
Using 2010 Data
Take out employee
TIGGAH said:
Android has sooo many sexy new phones coming out. I'm not leaving WP7 but I am jealous of the hardware they use. .
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Click to collapse
Feel the same way, especially after seeing the galaxy s2 review.
jtn04 said:
Feel the same way, especially after seeing the galaxy s2 review.
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Click to collapse
newer hardware. newer UI. Same experience...might as well just stick with the older Android phones. The hardware doesn't even sway me anymore. Hardware is good enough to play games easily but I kinda need my phone for its phone features. Once you hit those games, battery tanks >.<
And they say that dual core saves battery life..but that's just referring to usage if the radios were off right? Because I doubt that dual core phones would speed up that radio because reviews don't mention it...so battery life won't be better at all as long as the radio is still eating up power like single core phones.
WP7 all the way for this guy. I kinda like how I'm in the same boat and will be in the same boat as other people with WP7 no matter what device they have. They get an update, I know I'll get the update too.
doministry said:
Whatever it is - 2 or 3 millions, half a year after premiere is catastrophic. If you guys use WM argument, it's a bad one. I mean they are IN it for years and still not beeing able to catchup?
And actually WM finally doesn't exist anymore.
These numbers mean WP7 is selling a bit more devices A MONTH than Android A DAY. Lol.
My intuition says WP7 is not appealing for users en masse.
But market is not something you can just easily predict. Nokia deal will be probably a main changing factor.
Currently with unstoppable Android devices show and lack of any response from WP7 world things will not be better but worse. I'm afraid WP7 will became a "geek" platform.
Click to expand...
Click to collapse
android was a largely geek platform before verizon's droid does campaigns...
doministry said:
Whatever it is - 2 or 3 millions, half a year after premiere is catastrophic. If you guys use WM argument, it's a bad one. I mean they are IN it for years and still not beeing able to catchup?
And actually WM finally doesn't exist anymore.
These numbers mean WP7 is selling a bit more devices A MONTH than Android A DAY. Lol.
My intuition says WP7 is not appealing for users en masse.
But market is not something you can just easily predict. Nokia deal will be probably a main changing factor.
Currently with unstoppable Android devices show and lack of any response from WP7 world things will not be better but worse. I'm afraid WP7 will became a "geek" platform.
Click to expand...
Click to collapse
How is the WM argument a bad one? My post was in response to someone saying their device was doomed. I will word this very carefully:
Your device is only doomed if development and support ceases to exist. There are two levels of support: Manufacturer (Microsoft) and Community (XDA). WinMo is not totally dead yet because of this site, nor are the devices (HD2 for example) dead yet.
In general, sales matter because without sales companies fold. But in this particular case, Microsoft will continue to do develop and support Windows Phone. The Nokia agreement was the first big, public sign of that.
I do not see Windows Phone 7 being scrapped for a Windows Phone 8 in 2012. Scrapped meaning development and support for Windows Phone 7 ceasing to exist. Will your HTC HD7 get Windows Phone 8? Who knows for sure. But Microsoft is in it to win it, no matter how long it takes.
So it would be nice for Windows Phones sales to be 10M in the first month, but not a do or die. If I did not have plans to buy an Android Tablet and replace my old notebook, I would pick up a Trophy right now (cheapest 1GHz phone I can find on the market).
A Canalys report just released implies that Q1 2011 shipments for WP7 were in the 2.4 million range. That doesn't contradict the PC Mag report, other than for the people trying to spin the 674,000 sales figures as being for the entire time since release. It does show some steady, but slow growth:
http://wmpoweruser.com/canalys-around-2-4-million-windows-phones-shipped-in-q1-2011/
nicksti said:
How is the WM argument a bad one? My post was in response to someone saying their device was doomed. I will word this very carefully:
Your device is only doomed if development and support ceases to exist. There are two levels of support: Manufacturer (Microsoft) and Community (XDA). WinMo is not totally dead yet because of this site, nor are the devices (HD2 for example) dead yet.
In general, sales matter because without sales companies fold. But in this particular case, Microsoft will continue to do develop and support Windows Phone. The Nokia agreement was the first big, public sign of that.
I do not see Windows Phone 7 being scrapped for a Windows Phone 8 in 2012. Scrapped meaning development and support for Windows Phone 7 ceasing to exist. Will your HTC HD7 get Windows Phone 8? Who knows for sure. But Microsoft is in it to win it, no matter how long it takes.
So it would be nice for Windows Phones sales to be 10M in the first month, but not a do or die. If I did not have plans to buy an Android Tablet and replace my old notebook, I would pick up a Trophy right now (cheapest 1GHz phone I can find on the market).
Click to expand...
Click to collapse
That is totally true. The development keeps the platform alive and is one of the signs of it's life.
I'd never say MS has scrapped the platform for WP8. Nokia deal... Well it's not that clear for me.
However it's also true MS doesn't hurry bringing some changes which would make the platform better. No new top end devices actually is a catastrophe.
My point was the market is not predictable. So even with MS involvement lack of any success will not push it's development in the future.
ms79723 said:
newer hardware. newer UI. Same experience...might as well just stick with the older Android phones. The hardware doesn't even sway me anymore. Hardware is good enough to play games easily but I kinda need my phone for its phone features. Once you hit those games, battery tanks >.<
Click to expand...
Click to collapse
It's not the same experience, if the UI is different... Unless you're using a different definition of "experience." I think that will be the case moreso for WP7 than for Android. There will be less incentive to upgrade a WP7 phone due to the limits on customization and the strict hardware specs, in addition to the "guarantee" that all handsets will get the same OS upgrades
And they say that dual core saves battery life..but that's just referring to usage if the radios were off right? Because I doubt that dual core phones would speed up that radio because reviews don't mention it...so battery life won't be better at all as long as the radio is still eating up power like single core phones.
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Click to collapse
The radio is used the same on single and dual core phones. The Dual Cores save battery life regardless. The newer CPUs by default draw less power than the older CPUs, and running two cores at half capacity often results in less draw than running a single core at near full capacity (i.e. media playback, multi-tasking, etc.).
Again, the radio in both are pretty similar, but a more efficient processor will obviously result in less power usage. It's not hard to figure that out...
WP7 all the way for this guy. I kinda like how I'm in the same boat and will be in the same boat as other people with WP7 no matter what device they have. They get an update, I know I'll get the update too.
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Click to collapse
The Android Manufacturers are getting better with updates as well. From the way things are looking, Epic 4G/Vibrant users in the US may get Gingerbread around the same time (if not before) WP7 devices get Mango...
IIRC, the Samsung WP7 devices are still having update issues?
nicksti said:
Microsoft is in it to win it, no matter how long it takes.
Click to expand...
Click to collapse
That will not make consumers buy the phones. I think a distinction needs to be made...
Just because a company is in it to win it and spends tons of money on advertising, doesn't mean consumers will buy it.
Consumers tend to make comparative decisions. They weigh the benefits of one product towards another one.
The only way they can avoid that, is if the WP7 devices are price so low that they can win sales based on price.
But carriers will probably still subsidize them to the same price as anything else to make more profits off of them. Since most users get their phones form a carrier, well... You finish that statement.
I'm sure Microsoft wanted Microsoft Bob and Windows Me to be a winners as well...
I'm honestly tired of people saying Microsoft isn't bringing "big changes to catch up to the competition" then what in the hell is Mango? I mean, I must honestly be dreaming of it's inclusions, right? Nobody consistently *****es at Apple for not releasing OSX updates monthly to "catch Windows" do they? Would I love to see a new feature every day of my life? Sure. But for anybody with half a brain who has viewed the demoes of Mango can see how tightly integrated most of these new features are. One feature feeds into another, which feeds into another, such as the Bing searches. When Apple releases an update yearly for iOS I don't hear complaints.
Some of you guys have unrealistic expectations and have this notion that you can manage Microsoft's resources and marketing better. So, I wonder, why you aren't in their position since you can handle it so much better. I continue to point out that Microsoft hasn't gotten to their position by making bad decisions, and have actually succeeded at almost every thing they have ever entered... Regardless of what was necessary.
Mango addresses a significant number of complaints, and these features aren't implemented in two days time. Software development takes a significant amount of time. We have companies dedicated to one program, ONE, and it takes them a year+ to release a miniscule update.
People also fail to remember than Android was a "failure" by most of your standards until Verizon completely took over their marketing campaign with their Droid advertisements filling up every other commercial slot. Now, regardless of carrier or device, an Android phone is dubbed a "Droid" and it's owner will tell you that it "Does." Eventually, Windows Phone WILL reach this level, this is Microsoft we're speaking about here.
I understand you guys are upset that it isn't Windows Phone, but to dub it a failure and to remove credit from Microsoft from scrapping a known enterprise system and diving head first into a consumer oriented "pretty" phone market is also unfair to this company. Call me a fan boy, but I see myself more of a realist, and having a father which develops extremely important software for a living, I understand this takes time.
N8ter said:
That will not make consumers buy the phones. I think a distinction needs to be made...
Just because a company is in it to win it and spends tons of money on advertising, doesn't mean consumers will buy it.
Consumers tend to make comparative decisions. They weigh the benefits of one product towards another one.
The only way they can avoid that, is if the WP7 devices are price so low that they can win sales based on price.
But carriers will probably still subsidize them to the same price as anything else to make more profits off of them. Since most users get their phones form a carrier, well... You finish that statement.
I'm sure Microsoft wanted Microsoft Bob and Windows Me to be a winners as well...
Click to expand...
Click to collapse
N8ter,
If your reponse is your expansion then I think you need to say it, because too often it seems what you are responding to something that was not said.
I did not say Microsoft being in it to win it would affect sales positively. Actually none of what I said had anything to do with increased sales. A poster made a statement saying if it is all true about the low sales then his/her phone is doomed. My response was just saying even though ordinarily poor sales will doom products, Windows Phone will not be doomed so easily. I also tried to define what doom meant.
It will take more than 1 year of poor sales to doom Windows Phone.
Fresh comment:
There are people on this board that believe the poor response to Windows Phone is due to its lack of features and it being a beta os.
Question - What due diligence does the average person do before picking up a contract phone?
Here is my thinking - even some nerds on this forum did not fully understand what they were getting into. In theory the fresh looking UI and the device offering should have been enough.
I do not know but the average person would not have known Windows Phone could not do custom ringtones. Or sync natively with Outlook. Or all the other stuff. They would have asked about features like: Wifi, 3G, Video Calling (not there), Facebook, Emails, etc. In theory they would have bought it, a sale would be registered, and they would have returned it. Companies tend to conveniently tell you sales, not sales minus returns.
I do not know the answer, but I suspect the answer is not easy.
http://www.engadget.com/2011/09/15/ballmer-windows-phones-arent-selling-very-well-but-were-not/
Thoughts?
I don't see how it could have been different:
- WP pre-mango is lacking
- advertsing went from light to inexistant
- there haven't been new handsets (ports to other carriers don't count)
- manufacturers aren't bothered
- carriers aren't bothered
- some services and apps are limited to the US
- XBL has been poor overall
- there's a new android phone almost every week
I'm sure I could still go for a bit but yeah, no surprise there.
Peew971 said:
I don't see how it could have been different:
- WP pre-mango is lacking
- advertsing went from light to inexistant
- there haven't been new handsets (ports to other carriers don't count)
- manufacturers aren't bothered
- carriers aren't bothered
- some services and apps are limited to the US
- XBL has been poor overall
- there's a new android phone almost every week
I'm sure I could still go for a bit but yeah, no surprise there.
Click to expand...
Click to collapse
If I were a financial analyst interested in MS's mobile performance for whatever weird reason, I'd certainly ask what's going to be different from now on to change the situation.
If Nokia and Mango are everything Microsoft has to offer, prospects are rather weak in the near term. Nokia is struggling across the world and across the whole line of its products. Mango brings changes which aren't visible easily, and they matter for those who already use the product.
Neither carriers nor OEMs (apart from Nokia) are excited about WP7 any more than they were a year ago. Services are still limited. XBL didn't really change at all. Android handsets will still be popping up every week. There are a few new handsets which will basically replace year-old devices, but Titan and Radar seem to be really overpriced and not anything groundbreaking. Nokia doesn't seem to be able to offer much until next year, one device with limited distribution won't be a game changer.
Improved international presence will certainly increase the numbers, but that will double sales in the most optimistic scenario. Other than that, I don't see anything. Those "hundreds" of salespeople MS is hiring to work with retail worldwide is nothing unless each one of them is capable of being present at hundreds of places simultaneously. That Microsoft will suddenly learn how to do marketing properly is absolutely unbelievable.
vangrieg said:
If I were a financial analyst interested in MS's mobile performance for whatever weird reason, I'd certainly ask what's going to be different from now on to change the situation.
If Nokia and Mango are everything Microsoft has to offer, prospects are rather weak in the near term. Nokia is struggling across the world and across the whole line of its products. Mango brings changes which aren't visible easily, and they matter for those who already use the product.
Neither carriers nor OEMs (apart from Nokia) are excited about WP7 any more than they were a year ago. Services are still limited. XBL didn't really change at all. Android handsets will still be popping up every week. There are a few new handsets which will basically replace year-old devices, but Titan and Radar seem to be really overpriced and not anything groundbreaking. Nokia doesn't seem to be able to offer much until next year, one device with limited distribution won't be a game changer.
Improved international presence will certainly increase the numbers, but that will double sales in the most optimistic scenario. Other than that, I don't see anything. Those "hundreds" of salespeople MS is hiring to work with retail worldwide is nothing unless each one of them is capable of being present at hundreds of places simultaneously. That Microsoft will suddenly learn how to do marketing properly is absolutely unbelievable.
Click to expand...
Click to collapse
Despite all the doom and gloom, I for one am glad I have a choice and am not forced to use an iphone or android if I want a modern smartphone OS. The anti-MS, anti-WP7 bias is real and true (not least here on this forum) but as long as there is a WP OS that is supported by Microsoft, sales numbers and popularity notwithstanding, that is all I will be buying.
Well the fact that Windows phone 7 wasn't selling well was an already known fact. they only manage to get their moneis from royalties.
efjay said:
Despite all the doom and gloom, I for one am glad I have a choice and am not forced to use an iphone or android if I want a modern smartphone OS. The anti-MS, anti-WP7 bias is real and true (not least here on this forum) but as long as there is a WP OS that is supported by Microsoft, sales numbers and popularity notwithstanding, that is all I will be buying.
Click to expand...
Click to collapse
Well, so will I. The topic is about sales though, and I'm not too optimistic about this area now.
I'm sure WP7 won't be abandoned anytime soon so it's not that big of a deal for me personally, but low sales do affect me and you, at least indirectly. I'm less than happy about device selection, for example. Another problem is that MS has been given a lot of credit by developers, but this can't last forever. Sales will have to pick up to keep apps flowing to the platform.
That's what happens when they release a smartphone with no features (no common features of the day).
They can't expect to gain any kind of a market when the competition has everything the user wants and their offerings don't.
MartyLK said:
They can't expect to gain any kind of a market when the competition has everything the user wants and their offerings don't.
Click to expand...
Click to collapse
I bet the name of the OS hurt sales 10 times more than the feature set.
As long as WP7 exists and continues to get dev support I'm happy. Zune never caught on, but I was happy with that. When WP7 came out, I passed those on to other family members and they enjoy them. I've come to the point where what you like doesn't affect my enjoyment. Heck, if the WP7 marketplace is compatible with windows 8 I doubt I'd care much if WP7 died.
Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I897 using XDA App
macjr82 said:
As long as WP7 exists and continues to get dev support I'm happy.
Click to expand...
Click to collapse
Well that's the thing, if it doesn't sell it will eventually lose dev support so you do need it to succeed somehow.
Peew971 said:
Well that's the thing, if it doesn't sell it will eventually lose dev support so you do need it to succeed somehow.
Click to expand...
Click to collapse
..why to be so anxious? Mango is right on the door steps, Samsung, HTC and others are coming with new devices this year. Nokia will be on the market soon...
So the OS and Hardware are at the same level as Apple and Android... And I think you also got the news that WP7 apps will also run on Windows 8...So what do you think the developers will do.....?
macjr82 said:
As long as WP7 exists and continues to get dev support I'm happy. Zune never caught on, but I was happy with that. When WP7 came out, I passed those on to other family members and they enjoy them. I've come to the point where what you like doesn't affect my enjoyment. Heck, if the WP7 marketplace is compatible with windows 8 I doubt I'd care much if WP7 died.
Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I897 using XDA App
Click to expand...
Click to collapse
well windows phones aren't selling but it isn't due to product its due to a lot of other factors...
I'm not worried. WP7 isn't going anywhere and when Windows 8 and WP8 are released that fact that both will be able share apps will push the sales of WP8 devices.
PCs, Slates, Mobile, Xbox. One UI to rule them all.
FTC said:
the OS and Hardware are at the same level as Apple and Android...
Click to expand...
Click to collapse
Software is pretty close, hardware isn't.
I'm not worried (yet), but it is far too early to assume that we have any kind of guarantee that WP8 will ever be released. It all depends on sales over the next 6 months. If they start to trend upward, then chances are the platform will continue. If they trend downward, carriers and handset makers will lose interest in pushing the phones, and Microsoft may stop development for it. That would not (or should not) affect the direction of Windows 8 for desktops, laptops and tablets, but it could mean the end of Microsoft's involvement in the smartphone business.
Peew971 said:
Well that's the thing, if it doesn't sell it will eventually lose dev support so you do need it to succeed somehow.
Click to expand...
Click to collapse
Sorry but this is Microsoft we are talking about. They have too much money to ever lose Dev suport.
Sent from my T8788 using XDA Windows Phone 7 App
RoboDad said:
I'm not worried (yet), but it is far too early to assume that we have any kind of guarantee that WP8 will ever be released. It all depends on sales over the next 6 months. If they start to trend upward, then chances are the platform will continue. If they trend downward, carriers and handset makers will lose interest in pushing the phones, and Microsoft may stop development for it. That would not (or should not) affect the direction of Windows 8 for desktops, laptops and tablets, but it could mean the end of Microsoft's involvement in the smartphone business.
Click to expand...
Click to collapse
Windows Mobile wasn't really succeeding that much for years and it didn't stop them.
That's true, but the market is different now than it was then. Look how quickly they pulled the plug on the Kin.
And, at its peak, Windows Mobile was quite a bit more successful than WP7 is right now. That's why I think the next 6 months are so crucial.
version numbers dont matter
In this segment, version numbers don't matter. Ms could name it wp99999 (5 9s reference) and no one would care. Its about innovating and unfortunately hardware specs... the UI can only go so far in convincing folks.
Kin has already been mentioned...
I read balmers comments too- that does not sound like an executive with any confidence in a product to me. If he isn't behind it, who is ? Developers won't matter if the os gets the axe from upstairs. Also, it looks very bad to investors and other workers when a failing segment gets money poured into it.
What to do ?
Open the floodgates, subsidize phones for $1 each out the door, and pay off every hardware maker to make more phones.
Will it happen ? Nope.
The people want BOOM! Today, not promises of it sometime soon.
RoboDad said:
I'm not worried (yet), but it is far too early to assume that we have any kind of guarantee that WP8 will ever be released. It all depends on sales over the next 6 months. If they start to trend upward, then chances are the platform will continue. If they trend downward, carriers and handset makers will lose interest in pushing the phones, and Microsoft may stop development for it. That would not (or should not) affect the direction of Windows 8 for desktops, laptops and tablets, but it could mean the end of Microsoft's involvement in the smartphone business.
Click to expand...
Click to collapse
Absolutely no chance MS is just going to just up and stop developing WP7. Especially in just 6 months. First thing that comes to mind is how they approached the original Xbox. Lost millions (if not billions) for years but stuck with it. The outlay for WP7 is hardly in the same territory so cost wise thats not a reason for them.
If OEM's bail, we know Nokia wont be one of them. For them to do a reversal would be the death knell for them so no matter what they are going to stick with WP7, even if they have to give it away.
Another reason is WP is becoming a critical part of the ecosystem MS wants to pitch to consumers and businesses. If they abandon it are they going to be using iphone or android to push MS services and software? Even when WM was unpopular they still had some place for it, I dont see them using a competitor's smartphone as the focus for their software. Its one way they can get consumers and businesses into the MS world (as apple is doing) so it would be hard for them to essentially just give up a crucial way to get more people using Microsoft software and services.
Worse case scenario, I see MS and Nokia going it alone, but when it comes down to it thats not a bad combination. I know this forum would love to see WP7 go away, but history has shown us how persistent MS can be, and this is one sector of the market that is too important to think they would just walk away. Windows Phone is a long, long way from going anywhere.